Sports Betting 101

Before poker became my new gambling vice I would dabble in sports betting from time to time. In our office tipping comp I managed to win two years running for an $800 collect each year. As I work in I.T, the other workers conspiracy theory was that I had a computer program giving me the winners. ;)

In regular sports betting my biggest win was when I put my entire account (~$1000) on Australia to win the Rugby League world cup at $1.40. The betting line was about par, that was until I discovered the 2nd best team (and only threat) had been split into several teams consisting of New Zealand, Fiji, Maori's, Tonga etc. Now it looked a sure thing and I had a nervous wait throughout the series!

A couple of general pointers which I discovered over time:


1. Home ground advantage
Home ground advantage is like position in poker. Many don’t give it the weighting it deserves. The away team might look slightly better than the home team, but playing at home is a huge advantage. Put yourself in the mindset of the players. At home you have a set routine, you know where you’re going, your family are around, you know the change room and facilities and it’s all very familiar and comfortable. I’m always reluctant to bet against the home team.


2. Form versus Reputation

A simple formula: form > reputation

I often hear the comment "they're a great term, they're due, they can’t possible keep losing, this week they'll turn it around". This is a big mistake. I often see tipsters picking a ‘good’ team week after week after week – and each week they play terrible and lose. Meanwhile, the less fancied team which is humming like a machine and playing better than its roster would indicate keeps causing the upsets. When the ‘good’ team finally does get it’s act together and puts some form on the board, now is the time to jump on and not before.

Form is very temporary and the key is to knowing how the team is tracking week to week.


3. Plain old hard work
You simply need to know all the players in the teams. There’s no secret, its just comes down to watching the games and eventually recognising all the players.

· Who is key?
· Who is dispensable?
· Who does the hard work*?
· Who can make/break a game?
· Who is involved in all the plays?
· Who is playing injured? etc

* This is more important than many realize. Most teams have players who carry a large workload in the team. If they’re missing, this impacts all players in the team.


4. An interesting trend

A team having lost away the previous week will be more likely to win when they come home.

A team having lost at home the previous week is more likely to lose when going on the road.

Put yourself in their mindset of the players. If you’ve traveled away and lost, when you come home you’re back in familiar surroundings and it’s the ideal time to turn things around. On the flip side, when you travel after a loss it’s more difficult to travel a long distance and win in foreign surroundings.


5. Raw results can be misleading
Simply looking at the scores doesn’t give much information. A close final score might hide that the winning team was extremely lucky. They might have got the bounce of the ball and the referees decisions. Conversely, a team that lost by a large result might have played extremely well for the majority of the game. Perhaps they lost several keys players during the match and eventually got overwhelmed over in the tail end of the game.

You really need to look at how the team performed in relation to the final result.


Summary
When you consider the ratio of skill to luck, there’s much more luck in sports betting. There are so many random variables such as weather, injuries, refereeing decisions, or just the general bounce of the ball etc.

It’s a purer form of gambling though and it makes the game more exciting. As BarryG would say, it gets the juices going!