The best laid plans...

Edit: I wrote this before going to bed and the math was horribly wrong. Now corrected - hopefully!

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Final stages of an extremely tough heads up game. It's level 5 and i have less than 10BB. Opponent has not much more. It's becoming a preflop game now.

Opponent has been playing a good game and the lead has been switching back and forth. I have noticed a trend that he limps weak on the button. I decide to try another steal from the BB with 52s while all but committing my stack. I remember hearing that its an old Johnny Chan play. Same effect as going allin without risking everything.

The problem was, once it became clear my opponent had trapped me by re-shoving I started to consider my options.
- do I now want to fold and leave myself with only ~5 BB? That WAS the original plan right?
- against a bad opponent, not a bad plan. I can still grind my way back. But against an opponent where I have little or no edge, the likelihood of winning a few races vs gambling now?
- if i have two live cards I'm getting a good price and against an overpair even money.
- sweet mercy, do I want to call for my tournament life with 52s?


Ah, feck - its only 2 bucks.




Tournament #136942085, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level V (75/150) - 2009/01/28 5:12:48 ET
Table '136942085 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: DOMINO127 (1670 in chips)
Seat 2: Forrest Gump (1330 in chips)
DOMINO127: posts small blind 75
Forrest Gump: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Forrest Gump [2d 5d]
DOMINO127: calls 75
Forrest Gump: raises 600 to 750
DOMINO127: raises 900 to 1650
Forrest Gump said, "well played"
Forrest Gump: calls 580 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (320) returned to DOMINO127
*** FLOP *** [4c Jh Js]
*** TURN *** [4c Jh Js] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [4c Jh Js 2c] [Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Forrest Gump: shows [2d 5d] (a full house, Jacks full of Deuces)
DOMINO127: shows [5c 5s] (a full house, Jacks full of Fives)
DOMINO127 collected 2660 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2660 | Rake 0
Board [4c Jh Js 2c Jd]
Seat 1: DOMINO127 (button) (small blind) showed [5c 5s] and won (2660) with a full house, Jacks full of Fives
Seat 2: Forrest Gump (big blind) showed [2d 5d] and lost with a full house, Jacks full of Deuces


Pot odds ~4:1 or 20% (call $600 to win $2400)

Good scenario:

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
5d2d	39.25%	667,894	8,448
AsQc	60.75%	1,035,962	8,448

Bad scenario:

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
5d2d	19.55%	326,871	15,874
8s8c	80.45%	1,369,559	15,874

Downright ugly:

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
5d2d	15.52%	219,231	92,934
5s5c	84.48%	1,400,139	92,934